Gül’s presidency heralds foreign policy changes for Turkey

Gül will bring his five year long experience in foreign affairs to the helm of the state, especially in two crucial areas: Turkey’s relations with the EU and with Iraq.

 Sinan Ülgen is the chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) in Istanbul

The Turkish Parliament elected former Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül as the country’s new president. Gül’s election ended months of political uncertainty that culminated in July’s early elections when the ruling AKP won a landslide victory. Gül is now set to occupy a more than symbolic position in Turkish politics as the Constitution grants considerable powers to the head of state. He gets to nominate several top officials. But above all, the president plays a significant role in foreign policy.
Indeed past presidents have usually been quite active on that front. Former President Özal is best remembered for his close relationship with then U.S. President Bush I and for his active role during the first Gulf war. Similarly former President Demirel left his mark on many of the country’s foreign policy initiatives ranging from the construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline to the European Union deal granting candidate status to Turkey. The previous President Sezer was a notable exception to this rule. He consistently refrained from becoming a player in the foreign policy field.

A pro-EU voice

Now with the advent of Gül, the presidency is set to regain a more active role, and Turkish foreign policy is likely to be significantly affected by this presidential change. Gül will bring his five years of foreign affairs experience to the helm of the state. He is expected to make a difference in at least two crucial areas: Turkey’s relations with the EU and with Iraq.
As a foreign minister, Gül was one of the leading proponents of the full EU membership objective in Turkey. He ranks among the more pro-European voices in Turkish politics. He was instrumental in pushing for the political reforms that allowed the start of accession talks with the EU back in 2005. The presidency will allow Gül to renew his contributions to this important objective. He can now take an initiative and establish closer ties with his European counterparts. Turkey stands to gain from the involvement of Gül in the game of European diplomacy. He should be able to overcome the lack of top-level political networking that undermined the effectiveness of Turkish foreign policy in years past.

New vision for Iraq

Gül’s second impact on Turkish foreign policy is likely to be in the case of Iraq. Current policies are focused on the national security impact of the situation developing in Iraq and particularly in northern Iraq. There is, however, a need for a grander vision for the future of this country. As a neighbor and regional power, Turkey is well positioned to develop a more ambitious, a more comprehensive and a more multi dimensional policy vis-à-vis Iraq. This is especially important at a time when pressure for the withdrawal of western troops from Iraq is mounting. Taking advantage of the institutional weight of the presidency, Gül may provide the necessary impetus to shift Turkey’s outlook on Iraq and allow the country to develop policies more suited to bringing peace, prosperity and stability to the whole region. Turkey would then become a crucial ally in the international community’s efforts to ensure a stable future for post-intervention Iraq.
Nonetheless, if Gül is to achieve these foreign policy objectives, he first needs to engineer a smooth transition. That will require him to demonstrate that he can be an independent political player. He will therefore need to distance himself from the ruling party and Prime Minister Erdoğan. This is the most imminent challenge facing Turkey’s new president.