Will AKP change Iraq policy ?

Retired Ambassador Yalım Eralp is said to have a collection of interesting examples of crypto documents from the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s internal correspondence. Had he worked under the government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), he would have added some precious items to his collection.

One of the most valuable would have been the crypto documents detailing the conversation between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, during the Israeli attack last summer, where the two started to pray in Arabic for those who died during the bombing. This anecdote has become a subject of talk in the corridors of the Ministry.

The AKP government has often surprised the Ministry’s bureaucracy with its policy decisions. Had there been a ballot box installed at the Ministry, it’s doubtful whether the outcome would have reflected the results of July 22. However, looking at it from a foreign policy perspective, it won’t be wrong to suggest that the landslide victory of the AKP created disappointment amid Turkish diplomats. On the contrary, the number of those rejoicing from the fact that the government received a strong mandate and therefore will have more room to maneuver on foreign policy issues must be quite high.
One of the foreign policy areas where the government will have more room for maneuver is the issue of the PKK’s presence in Iraq. Prior to the elections, the hands of the government were not free. It was under pressure by the army to launch a cross-border operation. The military’s and President Ahmet Necdet Sezer’s opposition to dialogue with Kurdish leaders further complicated the issue.

Today, the government has more room to maneuver. The army’s influence is bound to diminish after the election results. As to Sezer, he is soon to be replaced. This should lead us to assume that the policy of avoiding high-level contacts with the Kurdish leadership will end soon and that the probability of a cross-border operation is now dimmer. Right? Not really.

Talabani in Ankara?

For sure, one of the first pieces of advice the new president will get from the foreign ministry bureaucrats will be to hand out an invitation to Jalal Talabani, Iraq’s Kurdish president. Turkish diplomats never endorsed Sezer’s decision of vetoing Talabani, simply because as a northern Iraqi Kurdish leader he is also turning a blind eye to the presence of the PKK. One of the first steps taken by the new president will be to invite Talabani to Turkey.

It is doubtful however whether a visit by Talabani will be followed by high-level contact with Massoud Barzani. Although there is a general belief among Turkish diplomats that Ankara needs to address the issue of the PKK directly with the Iraqi Kurdish leadership, pessimism prevails as to any positive outcome from such a dialogue. Many in the ministry are frustrated with the stance taken by the Iraqi Kurds. “They know what they have to do; we don’t need to tell them one more time. Besides, we don’t want to give them the impression that they can use the PKK against us as a bargaining chip,” said one diplomat.
Hence the new government will not be encouraged by the ministry to seek high-level contact with Barzani, unless there is an indication that he means business; that is to say he is decided on moving against the PKK. As to a cross-border operation, the ministry always saw it as a last resort. However, with the present level of frustration in the ministry, unless the Kurds give some kind of an indication that they are ready to cooperate, the proponents of military incursion might increase each passing day.