Sarkozy’s interesting message on Turkey

France is not changing its basic point of view, but adopts a more flexible general attitude. It brings forward its relationships with Turkey and suggests a new formula.

We were so involved in our own affairs last week that we paid no attention to external developments. We were busy discussing who was or wasn’t at which reception and which general didn’t salute whom. We almost became body language experts. Yet there were important developments in Turkish-French relations. French President Sarkozy held his traditional meeting with the 180 ambassadors that represent his country abroad. He established the general lines of the Elysee’s foreign policy. The discussions naturally included EU-Turkey relations. If we list his suggestions together with their Turkish meanings, we get an interesting picture.

1. There are 30 chapters within the framework of Turkey-EU negotiations, the completion of which will steer this relationship into a “privileged partnership”. Let’s give priority to these 30 chapters. This is an option that will neither contradict the French attitude nor harm Turkey’s hopes for full accession. The remaining 5 negotiation chapters (he did not say which 5) will lead Turkey into “full membership.” Let’s postpone the negotiations of these 5 chapters for a while. (NOTE: Sarkozy said that he mentioned this suggestion to Erdoğan, too, but did not go into details.)

2. In the meanwhile, let’s have the 27 EU countries conduct a study for the establishment of the Union’s future and its borders. If, at the end of this study, the 27 countries decide that there is room for Turkey among us, France could withdraw its veto on Turkey.

3. Turkey and France have shared a long and important piece of history. There used to be special ties between these two countries. I, like Erdoğan, am in favour of renewing these ties.

In search of a middle course

The French media interpreted the French President’s new approach as “a softening of his opposition to Turkey.” However, when we examine his former speeches, we notice that this change is more about “the search for a middle course” than a “softening or flexibility.”

Sarkozy used to say that “Turkey was not European.” He used to state that Turkey had no place in Europe and opposed to its full membership for this reason. This time, he did not discuss Turkey’s “European” qualities. He approached the subject from another angle. He said, “Let’s first examine the EU-27 and see if there’s room for a large country for Turkey before we reach a decision.”

This shows a certain retreat from his former attitude. He’s still against Turkey’s full accession. However, he now announces that he will accept it if the 27 countries decide in favour of a “full membership.” By saying that he will not object to the negotiation of those 30 chapters, Sarkozy has also lifted the most important barrier that I think was instrumental in blocking the negotiations till now.

Another important first was when he openly declared that he did not want any friction with Turkey and stressed the importance of French-Turkish relations.
With these words, Sarkozy also indicated the decision that he wanted the EU Summit of 12 December to produce: To conduct a study in order to establish the future and the borders of the EU… To continue the negotiations with Turkey in the meanwhile… *

The EU commission is happy

The EU Commission welcomed Sarkozy’s recent constructive remarks. The Commission had strongly objected to the fact that a member country had blocked the negotiations with Turkey by taking every pretext to veto or forestall the opening or closing of each paragraph for reasons of its own internal politics. EU Commission President Barroso and EU Enlargement Commissioner Rehn had taken a very firm attititude in this matter. A promise had been made to Turkey in 2004. All EU countries, including France, had voted to “open full membership negotiations.” To forget those words and to say that Turkey was not European would destroy the EU’s credibility and trustiness.

Barroso and Rehn constantly called for “pacta sunt servanda.” The Commission believed that Turkey should only have be assessed on the basis of its progress and kept promises. The negotiations would advance at the rate that it complied with the Copenhagen Criteria and opened its ports to Greek Cypriots. Sarkozy’s attempts to pursue new policies should not have invalidated the promises made to Turkey.

The recent statement of the French President put Brussels’s mind at ease by opening the door to negotiations with Turkey. This gives the Commission more room for movement. On one hand, Turkey will not be given the impression that the doors are shut, and on the other hand, there won’t be any friction with France. Now starts a two-stage process in EU-Turkey relations: The first stage is the Progress Report to be published at the beginning of November. This will be a very negative report, for Turkey accomplished no reforms during the past year and only dealt with the elections. Besides, the Parliament’s recess that will last until the 1^st of October means that Turkey won’t even be able to achieve the amendment of Article 301. The second stage concerns the decision that should be taken at the 12 December Summit, concerning the formation of a task force for the study of the EU’s borders and future enlargement. The future of Turkey-EU relations will depend on the report of this work group. In the meanwhile, negotiations with Turkey on 30 chapters will have to continue. In short, the accession process will continue in spite of the difficulties.