Turkey prepares for a new era with Armenia

Turkish President Abdullah Gül is preparing to go to Yerevan with hopes of a breakthrough in frozen relations with Armenia. The two countries have no official diplomatic ties, and whether the visit will open the way to a normalization of relations, depends on how the Turkish President is received in Yerevan.

Armenian President Serge Sarkisian’s invitation to watch the football game next Saturday was a gesture of good-will, rather than part of a careful strategy, in the eyes of Turkish officials. However, making a cost-benefit analysis of whether to go or not, is based on strategic interests rather than good-will alone, as far as Ankara is concerned. “Saying no would mean that Turkey is closed to dialogue. It would create the image that it cannot even tolerate an initiative based on a humanitarian framework like football,” said a high-level Turkish official. The Turkish government also believes that Armenia wants to improve its relations with Turkey and seeks progress in secret direct-talks, initiated after Sarkisian’s election as president last April.

The recent tension in the Caucasus is an additional reason for Gül’s likely acceptance of the invitation. The fact that Russia has increased its area of manoeuvrability in the region has prompted Turkey to propose a new regional mechanism; the Caucasian Stability and Co-operation Pact. With this initiative, Turkey believes that it assumes a role on an equal standing with Russia, which has become more and more assertive in the region. The absence of dialogue with Armenia would have dealt a serious blow to the credibility and efficiency of the initiative.

Visit a significant change in policy on Armenia

But more importantly, the visit, if it takes place, might bring a significant change in Turkey’s policy of isolating Armenia. The Turkish decision-makers seem to have come to the conclusion that isolating Armenia through exclusion from multi-regional co-operation schemes, like the energy corridors, has pushed Armenia into the hands of the Russians. In the recent course of events Turkey is keen to avoid polarization, with Russia and Armenia on one side, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia on the other.

In this respect, although the primary effect of the visit will be a symbolic move towards a thawing in relations between Turkey and Armenia, all the signs from Ankara show that the Turkish government is eager to use this opportunity to put relations with Yerevan into a different framework. But whether this visit will represent a real turning point, will also depend very much on the Armenians. Although part of the Turkish administration admits that both sides wish to have a revision of the current state of affairs, there are doubts, however, as to what degree the Armenian leadership would be able to deliver. “How the President will be received? What will be their stance on various issues? Will they be more flexible on Nagorno Karabakh. All these are important questions,” said a high-level official.

The talks between the two presidents might change the course of relations between the two countries. If Gül goes to Yerevan, no doubt he will not just talk about the performance of the players during the game. Certainly he will first talk about Turkey’s regional initiative. Next on the agenda will be the future of direct talks. The two might then also talk about the issue of Nargorno Karabakh

“The visit to Yerevan should not be perceived as a change in our policy towards Nagorno Karabakh or Azerbaijan,” said a Turkish official. Although Azerbaijan is not happy about the visit, it has nevertheless never told the Turkish side not to go, according to the same official.

All the frozen conflicts in the region have been taken out of the deep-freeze, in the words of a Turkish diplomat. Hence it is about time a solution was found in Nagorno Karabagh. Turkey believes both sides are playing for time. “But we have reached a stage where there is no room left for playing for time,” said a Turkish diplomat, with the hope that a breakthrough with the visit to Yerevan might open the way for a comprehensive solution to the Nagorno Karabakh problem.